Oil shocks have a new dimension in CEE. Russian Baltic and Black Sea oil infrastructure has been hit, temporarily halting up to 40 per cent of its oil export capacity.

Russia and Belarus would reap a fertiliser windfall from the Iran war, but their seaports are under attack from Ukrainian drones and legal siege by the Baltic states.

Iran’s attack on the Diego Garcia military base in the Indian Ocean marks a pivot in threat perception for most European capitals. Tehran fired two missiles with a range of roughly 4,000 kilometres – putting most of Europe in the crosshair. The kinetic risk is now real and CEE countries...

If Orbán ally and opposition leader Janez Janša wins, Slovenia may pivot into the sovereigntist bloc.

With all six negotiating clusters now informally open, Kyiv’s path to the European Union is blocked as much by a collapsing parliament as by Hungary’s persistent veto.

During his speech in Heroes’ Square in Budapest on 15 March Magyar asked hundreds of thousands to chant: ‘Russians go home!’ – just like in 1956. Will this be enough in the April elections or will the Russian behemoth claim victory…again?

President Karol Nawrocki’s veto of the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defence-funding bill on 12 March delayed Warsaw’s access to up to 43.7 billion euros in low-interest financing for defence modernisation over 45 years.

While a flare-up in Iran could provide Moscow with a short-term financial ‘bonus’, it is not a remedy that secures permanent demand for the Russian oil and gas.

A recent judgment of the European Court of Justice in the Klubrádió case (C-92/23) signals that the EU is willing to defend pluralistic media against political pressure – but the gap between commitments and reality remains.

Polish elites disagree about how to fund defence. President Nawrocki’s domestic defence-funding alternative is built on an accounting trick, a flawed draft law and years of Central Bank losses – but its real purpose is to disengage Poland from the EU.